In this article we will break down two upcoming fights on the Danish Fight Night May. 31 in Dansborgshallen, Hvidovre to see where we can find the most value from a betting perspective. This is a rare occasion in Danish boxing where we actually have a sportsbook that have odds out for non-essential local fights and we are very happy about that. The two chosen fights will be between Nikolay Piddubnyy vs. Ramiz Hadziaganovic and the main event between Genti Morina vs. Thorbjörn Boudigaard.
Let’s start with the co-main event with Nikolay Piddubnyy who is 2-0 with 2 first round ko’s. He is a very big favorite to win this fight and for good reason, so picking him outright to win without specifying how yields no benefit. When studying Nikolay, It is obvious that he punches hard. You can also tell that he has fast twitch muscles that release punches very explosively and fast. He looks strong and steady in his stance. But you can’t take away much from his first 2 wins that came inside a round because the level of opposition was extremely low. Now in his third fight he is facing yet another journeyman with little chance to win but there is a big difference between this journeyman and the other two he has faced. There are several types of journeymen and one needs to be very careful with matchmaking when choosing opponents for a prospect. A journeyman is brought in for one of several purposes, main one is to lose and help develop the upcoming prospect and build their record up to prepare them for bigger things. I will explain further some key differences to look for:
To start with, All journeymen can not be placed in the same cabinet with regards to how they lose their fights, in other words the difference in quality among journeymen can vary a whole lot and also their resilience. I will tell you more about two different types of journeymen;
There is the kind of journeyman who has many fights and usually gets stopped every single time or close to that. This type usually shows no resistance and is happy to give up as soon as possible after receiving some punches. They don’t even have to land cleanly. They will take a knee, turn around or just give up. Many times, after bogus knockdowns where you clearly can see that they are able to continue, they let them selves be counted out to 10.
There is another kind of journeymen who usually has many fights and they never get stopped or almost never. This type of journeyman is experienced in the ring and they know how to do just enough to survive and take as little punishment as possible. Many times, you can determine this kind of fighter by their record that can contain a lot of fights and usually just very few stoppage losses if any.
Why am I telling you this? Yes, because in order to handicap the fight correctly between Nikolay Piddubnyy and Ramiz Hadziaganovic we need to determine what type of journeyman Ramiz really is?
The first two opponents that Piddubnyy faced both belong to the first category where they will get stopped every time out or close to it. The first guy Colic has lost 10 fights and has been stopped in 8 of those 10. The second guy he faced last time out Thomas Makula was unbeaten in 3 fights but was completely useless in the ring and turned around several times and just wanted to give up as soon as possible in the first round. Even Piddubnyy looked like he felt sorry for him at one occasion and took of some power from the shots before attacking him again. That’s how bad Thomas Makula was.
So like I said we know that Piddubnyy punches hard but most guys do in the Heavyweight division. The question is just; How hard does he hit and how good is he from a technical standpoint when he steps up in level? Only time will tell that.
The opponent this time is Ramiz Hadziaganovic who does not belong in the same category as the first two opponents. He doesn’t really belong in neither of those two categories that I described. He is another kind.
Unlike the other two categories described, Ramiz belongs to a rare type of journeyman who starts the fights by trying to win. The other two groups never try to win at all. Ramiz like I said tries to win and he actually has some power in his right which he doesn’t really throw straight. He throws it wide and looping around the guard and sometimes he connects with it. He comes forward aggressively and when he gets his opponents backwards to the rope, he unleashes big shots to the body, usually most of them misses but opponents seem to respect his power in beginnings of fights.
I am not at all suggesting that Ramiz will win this fight, not at all. Piddubnyy has the advantage in basically every area of the fight. Ramiz is not good enough to beat Piddubnyy but what we are trying to do here is to find out how long he lasts in this fight for the purpose of extracting value. Just picking Piddubnyy to win when he is such a big favorite gives you no value at all but it is determining how and when he wins that gives us the value. If you would place 100dkr just simply on Piddubnyy to win you would get back 101dkr for a profit of 1dkr, in other words no value at all and I do not recommend playing that.
The value on this fight will be the Over/Under number of rounds where I disagree with the oddsmakers. My line for this fight would be set at Over/Under 1.5 rounds – 1.90 in odds both ways meaning if they fight ten times, half the times the fight goes over 1.5 rounds and the other half it doesn’t go over that.
I watched Ramiz last three fights. 2 months ago he went the distance with an unbeaten prospect 11-1 with 8 ko´s for 10 full rounds. In Ramiz last fight he was stopped in 3 rounds but was never knocked down. He was stopped standing. So I expect Ramiz to do what he always does, which is to come out swinging. He lands a few and eats a few. He survives the first round but eventually gets tired as usually and ends up getting stopped, but not in the first.
The oddsmakers put the line at 0.5 rounds which by their rules means if the fight goes one completed round or not. That is where I found the value. I believe that this fight goes past the first round. I am Not expecting Ramiz to hear the final bell because he is older and he does not have good conditioning so most likely he gets stopped, I just don’t think it happens in the first round. I would guess rounds 3-4 for the stoppage but the only play with value on this fight is the fight to go ‘Over 0.5 Rounds’ which you can get at 1.83 at Bet25 who is offering the odds for this card. That seems to me like really good value and that is the pick. If Piddubnyy would knock him out in the first round, that would be very impressive,
Piddubnyy vs. Ramiz ‘Over 0.5 rounds’ with the odds 1.83 Bet25
Now lets get into the main event between Morina and Boudigaard.
The fight between Genti Morina 1-0 (1 ko´s) and Thorbjörn Boudigaard 5-2 (5 ko´s) is a very good match-up indeed. This is a true 50/50 affair with different leans depending on who you ask. Genti Morina recently turned professional and has one prior fight which ended in a first round body-jab knockout against a hopeless opponent who was way overmatched to share the ring with someone of Genti´s pedigree. Genti is a two-time Swedish heavyweight champion and a two-time Nordic heavyweight champion with lots of experience and he happens to be trained by, yours truly, Hisham Zaben.
When this fight was presented to us, we immediately accepted the fight for a number of reasons. first of all, This is a really good fight for the fans to enjoy. Thorbjörn Boudigaard is the more experienced professional of the two by some margin. He has 7 fights compared to just Genti´s one fight. Boudigaard has never won a fight when the scorecards were read. The two times his fights went the distance; he had the short end of the stick in competitive fights against good fighters. His wins however, have all five of them come by way of knockout and that is impressive. Even though he has faced a bunch of cannon fodders, he still managed to knock them out decisively and those are good wins.
The factors that speak well for Boudigaard are the following: He has more experience as a professional and he has been more active as of late and activity is an important factor. I expect Boudigaard to be in great shape because his last fight took place two months ago and if we assume that he had a good camp for that fight, he was already in shape and he just built upon that for this camp to get in great shape for this fight. He also has a very good trainer that I respect very much in Thomas Macon who is an experienced corner man.
Another important factor for Boudigaard is that in all honesty, he really has nothing to lose in this fight. He is not undefeated anymore. He already has two losses in seven fights so we know that he will come with his best effort.
The factors that speak against Boudigaard in this fight: When he was matched against tough opponents, he wasn´t able to win. He knows how it is to lose as a professional while Genti has not learned that yet. Genti has proven through his amateur career that he is able to win when it matters the most. I started training Genti in 2021 and since that year we have never entered a championship tournament without returning with the Gold. He was won Gold in every national or nordics tournament he has entered since 2021. In his last Nordic Championship, he was awarded the fighter of the tournament.
From my subjective view, I believe Genti is the superior boxer of the two and that he will separate himself from Thorbjörn in this fight.
They are both the same height and have pretty much the same reach. From what I have been hearing they weigh very close to each other so in every metric they are evenly matched.
The oddsmakers have in this fight, to my surprise, installed Boudigaard as a slight favorite priced at 1.70 while Genti can be had at even money 2.00. I happen to disagree with that and believe that Genti should be the favorite in this fight, which is not to say that Boudigaard can´t win. Like I said before, when betting on sports the only thing that matters is value. I believe, in my subjective view that if Genti and Boudigaard fights 3 times, Genti would win at least 2 out of 3. So, my line for this fight would be:
Genti Morina 1.50
Thorbjörn Boudigaard 2.50
The fact that Genti can be found at 2.00 is tremendous value in my opinion no matter the outcome in this specific fight and that is the recommended play for this fight.
I believe the oddsmakers have made another error in creating the lines for this fight which we give bettors another great oppurtunity and it is the following. The oddsmakers at Bet25 believe that this fight is more likely to end within 6 rounds than it is to make it the distance and I strongly disagree with that. They believe that this fight ends in a knockout because all of Boudigaard´s wins have come inside the distance and the same for Genti so they assume because of that, that this fight also ends in a knockout. Of course, it only takes one punch in heavyweight boxing to end a fight but I will argue that this fight is way more likely to go the distance than not. Why, you might ask?
Because their combined 6 knockout victories have all come against very weak opposition. In this fight they will both face someone of equal qualities. Furthermore, I know that Genti has a good chin as he has never been down in his career and from the looks of it, Boudigaard looks strong and takes punches well also. I haven´t seen Boudigaard hurt or down either. So I would say that this fight is way more likely to go the distance from a betting perspective and the oddsmakers to be offering 1.90 for the fight to go the distance is incredible value from a likelihood standpoint.
So the two picks I like and recommend for this fight is:
Genti Morina to win the fight 2.00
The fight to go the distance 1.90
Remember, do your own research before placing any bets and bet responsively.
For those of you that do not know me, My name is Hisham Zaben and I handicap boxing fights semi professionally and have been doing so for a number of years. I make my own lines for all fights that I wager on and compare them to oddsmakers line to determine value. The only thing important when placing bets on sports is value and an expected longtime ROI. Boxing is my passion and I am also a boxing trainer. I have been involved in the sport for over 20 years now and counting.